Bonnez Y, Vermeiren S, Maertens B, Lauwers AN and Van Rompaey B
Aim: The purpose of this study was to develop a Geriatric Early Warning Instrument (GEWI) able to prematurely identify subtle physical changes that lead to negative health outcomes, such as hospitalization and death. Methodology: The study was a prospective cohort study where vital signs were assessed over a seven week period of time nursing home residents ages 65 and older living in Antwerp, Belgium. Furthermore, medical records were consulted to register the number of hospitalizations, deaths and Katz-scores. Findings: Residents encountering a negative outcome (hospitalization or death) had a lower mean systolic blood pressure and a lower blood oxygen level (p<0,05). In those residents, systolic blood pressure and blood oxygen level showed a significant but very weak correlation (0,30>r>-0,30). Systolic blood pressure, heart rate and blood oxygen level were significant predictors for negative outcomes and hospitalization, whereas a higher heart rate and lower blood pressure were significant predictors for premature death. Conclusion: While the initial results were promising, a general conclusion was difficult to generate. Initial findings indicated that systolic blood pressure and blood oxygen level may possibly predict negative outcomes, hospitalization and death. Future large multi-centered research is needed to expand the database in order to confirm these findings.
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